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American consumers' long-running love affair with debt is on the rocks. And as they repent for their credit-driven Bacchanalia, the foundering U.S. economy is left to pick up the pieces.
Since the financial crisis erupted, millions of Americans have ditched their credit cards, accelerated mortgage payments and cut off credit lines that during the good times were used like a bottomless piggybank. Many have resorted to a practice once thought old-fashioned—delaying purchases until they have the cash.
As a result, total household debt—through payment or default—fell by $1.1 trillion, or 8.6%, from mid-2008 through the first half of 2011, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Auto loan and credit-card balances in August had their biggest drop since April 2010, the Federal Reserve said. Just another 2 trillion to payoff by excessive consumer spending in the past.
The national belt-tightening, known as deleveraging, comes as the U.S. economy struggles to fend off a double-dip recession. Paying off bills slows consumer spending on appliances, travel and a slew of other products and services. Home sales, the engine of past economic recoveries, remain depressed.
Many other Americans aren't borrowing because they can't—either because of credit defaults, tightened bank standards or homes that have lost all equity.
During the Great Depression, economist John Maynard Keynes warned of a so-called paradox of thrift: When everyone turns frugal, everyone suffers. Synchronized thrift slows the economy, according to Keynes, which hobbles income growth and makes people even stingier in a pernicious cycle.
Some experts worry that is happening now. Since the recession ended in mid-2009, the U.S. economy has expanded at a 2.5% annual rate, far slower than the average growth of 4.3% during the first two years of the previous four recoveries.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, October 22, 2011
Robert R. Prechter Jr.: Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression
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